Tourney & NFL Week 1 picks!

Hello all. Well as you may have seen on the GCP main site, I played Event #1 at the Beau Friday and managed to sneak into the money. This post with talk a little about that, my overall weekend, and about the NFL Week 1 games I'm betting. Here we go:

I took my girlfriend and kids to the Saints game Thursday night. Figures they go 3-1 during preseason, and we watch the only game they lose. Not only that but the game was overall just dreadful(as far as plays go). No big plays to speak of. I did enjoy bringing the kids to their first Saints game. They enjoyed it. We took off in the 4th quarter to the Beau.

We arrived at about midnight. I went talk and sweat Joe Beuche and Tex for a while. But didn't want to get into a game, knowing I had to be up for the 12pm tournament the next day. I got a little sleep, and woke up for 8AM to sign up for the tournament. This turned out to be a good idea because the line later was ridiculous. Then I caught breakfast with Davey(Southpaw Rounder). Afterwards, I realized I needed a room for today. Lisa and the kids had to be out of the room for 11AM. So here is where my day started getting shitty. I'm on the phone half the morning trying to find a good room at a decent rate. I call and leave a message for Donna at the Beau, trying to get a poker room rate for Friday, because the $319 normal rate is a little absurd. I leave her a message. No contact from her so I call around. Best Western across the street from the Beau, $159... IP.. $199... and a few others with about the same price. Then I call the Isle of Capri. I can get a Jacuzzi Suite there for $139. Sweet. I book a room there. Then it happens. The last word out of the receptionist's mouth was, "Just so you know, this is a Non-Refundable reservation." O.K. No Problem, I don't plan on canceling anyway. I swear to you, not 3 minutes later I get a phone call. It's Gene D. I tell him I just booked a room at the Isle. And to that he says, "Oh man. Davey told me about your situation. And I'm leaving now and I have the room booked for tonight at the Poker room rate. I was going to let you stay there for the $99 or so rate." S.O.B.!!

It ended up not being too bad.. Because the kids got to see a new hotel. There was a little TV in the bathroom that PUMPED them up. There was also a TV in an awkward spot. 3 TVs. Not too bad. A nice size jacuzzi(That Lisa and I took full advantage of). The room is not as elegant as the rooms at the Beau. But they probably enjoyed it more. I personally wished we stayed at the Beau but it worked out OK.

Now onto the tourney.. this gets worse. I get to the Beau a little late after the hotel switch fiasco. When getting out of the truck, I drop my iPhone on the ground. No Problem, I have a hell of a case(Learned my lesson after destroying my original iPhone by dropping it in the Venetian). Problem is, the tiny hole I had near the crotch of my pants.... spits into a nice size hole.. UGGHH! At least I have a jacket that pretty much covers it. But every time I moved around throughout the day, that hole spit bigger and bigger. It got to where my jacket wouldn't fully cover it. That was just a huge pain in the ass all day, putting my hands in my jacket pocket to cover my hole with the bottom of the jacket.

I finally get in and have a seat at my table, Seat 5. I really like sitting in the 1,2,9 or 10. I'm squished in the middle this time. O.K. time to put on my headphones to drown out some idiot talking about why he didn't bet the river with a set because a club hit. I put them on for about 15 seconds before they die. I check the headphones, not charged and dead!! Unbelievable. My stupidity. So now I have to cover a hole in my jeans, and lug around a Bose headphone case with non-working headphones all f*%^ing day. Ok Sorry.... onto poker.

My tourney started out very slow. I raised a fair bit preflop early and took down some blinds to stay around. I raised with 10-8 from the button to take down the blinds. Then the very next hand, from the cutoff.. I have KK. Sweet. They can't let me take two blinds in a row huh? Yes they can. For the record, I played the tournament for 12.5 hours.. I never caught AA. I caught KK once, and QQ twice. Winning all three preflop.. Yuck. I made one set, no nut straights or flushes. And the set I made was on the river when my pair was ahead on the flop when I called a short-stack all-in.

I was pretty dead on with my reads pretty much all day. Except for a couple of hands I'll get to later. One hand that I won a very nice pot with at the time was 3d5d. Blinds are 100/200/25. I raise from MP to 600. I get called in 4 spots! Flop comes down Q-5-4. Two spades. Check, Check ,check to me. I should have bet here, but I didn't. I check and player behind me checks. The turn is a 2. Which actually gives an open-ended straight draw to go with my pair of 5's. Again, check check check to me. This time I bet.. 2k. I get 3 calls. Jesus. When I bet the turn I thought there was a good chance I had the best hand, now I'm not so sure. The river is an offsuit 8. Spades never get there. Check, Check to me. I check. And the tight player left to act behind me, makes a face like, "WTF?!" I'm thinking he may bet. In which case I'm probably calling. He checks. And my 5 holds. Nice. With the blinds at 100/200/25, I win a 11k+ pot with a pair of 5's, 3-kicker.

I don't like to sound like I'm gloating, but I do feel like I played very well the entire tournament. Probably my B+ game(like I have any idea). Here's a hand that I didn't necessarily have a bad read. I just got tired of his guy and was ready to make a play at him.. And got SUPER lucky. This one guy at our table 2 spots to my right, was raising every hand he was in the cutoff or button. He would raise his button(my BB) and we would fold, he'd pick-up the pot. Standard shit. Well I was getting tired of it. The table folds around to him and he raises his button. The SB folds. And I finally decide to defend with 5-6off. The flop comes down K-9-7. I check and he bets out strong. He continuation bet all f*&^ing day. I thought, Ok I'm calling this bet, then betting or check shoving the turn(probably just betting). So I call. Then the miracle 8 hits the turn. Nice. No need for the bluff now. I check. He shoves(another overbet) and I call. He shows K-9 for top two. He doesn't fill up and I bust him. And I come off looking like a complete idiot, calling a big bet on the flop with a gutterball. Which I'm ok with, just ship me the chips. But if I don't hit the 8, I'm betting.. then probably having to call an all-in(because of the amount of the stacks). And he actually had a real hand this time. Shows you the difference a card can make.

I know what you're thinking, "It's easy to play well when you can hit miracles." True. But that's the only hand I got really lucky on. I felt good. I was reraising when I was supposed to. C-betting in success. I called a river bet with Top pair that was a tough call. I was doing the right things. I never made many hands. Couldn't connect with Broadway cards much. I was above average in chips for most of the tournament. I didn't get moved from my original table for hours and hours. People came and went.

Finally I got moved to another table with about 100-200 people left. I caught a couple of decent hands early. Then it happened. I went COMPLETELY card dead at absolute worse time. But I couldn't catch a cold. With 100 players left, I bet our table had 40% of the chips. I mean it was ridiculous. Chips were flying, and I was mainly watching. With about 85k in chips.. A player raised from MP/LP to 10k. I made it 30k with A5off. I took down the blinds, antes, and his raise. If I don't steal that pot, I don't make the money. I did manage to catch 1010 and lost a decent pot to JJ. It was sick. Believe me, I'm not the guy who waits and sits out and tries to make the money. But I didn't feel like shoving with 9-4, 10-3, 8-3, 8-2, J-4, etc. So basically, I waited for an absolute monster, or I was waiting for the money. I didn't have enough chips to splash with. I was getting low.

Then the money bubble bursts. 589 players entered. 54 spots paid. You're listening to Mr. 54th place lol. The bubble burst. Next hand I'm UTG and muck my garbage. Next hand I'm in the BB. Blinds are 2k/4k/500. I have 34k left. The entire table folds to the button, who raises to 15k. The SB thinks, then just calls. I look down at AK. I'm happy and pissed. I'm happy because I finally have a hand, and pissed because where was this shit 2 hours ago? Well I shove or course. 19k on top.. They both call. They check it down until the button bets the river. Shit I must be done. Sure enough, he has 10h8h and rivered a straight. Unbelievable. The SB shows AJ. I could have won this hand a few different ways. First, the SB.. an aggressive player could have(and I think usually would) 3bet preflop. If he pops the button's raise a healthy amount, I still shove.. The button folds, and I beat AJ heads up. He also had the opportunity to do that after I shoved and the button called. I could have won that way too. And last but certainly not least, if the button doesn't river a straight. My AK was ahead going to the river. He rivers a gutterball. I actually only need to dodge 13 outs on the river.. and I'm right about average in chips. Can't do it... I'm out.

12.5 hours played, barely make enough money for the extra hotel night... An absolute grind! Ah well.. better luck next time.

ONTO NFL FOOTBALL!!

Week 1 starts this week. I'm pumped. I'm a Chicago Bears fan. They play Green Bay on Sunday Night Football. I'm excited. Anybody who watches football know that Bears/Packers is like the biggest rivalry in football. Go Bears!

Well, I enjoy betting pro football. I am no sports handicapper(not yet anyway lol). But I thought I'd give you my picks and let you see how well/bad I do. I'll also give a little reasoning behind my picks. Here we go:

Tennesse Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers(-5)

I'm taking the Steelers here(I know you like it Ray). Tennesse went 13-3 last year. But I don't think they'll even make the playoffs this year. The Titans had a great defense last year. But they lost two keys from that D. The Monster that is Albert Haynesworth(Washington Redskins), and their defensive coordinator Jeff Schwartz, who is now coaching the Lions. I simply think the Titans are not the team they were last year. Kerry Collins is their QB for now. He does scare me a bit because he is inconsistent in my eyes and can possibly have a great game. But I don't think it will happen. He doesn't have a whole lot to through to. Pittsburgh is 5-1 against the spread in their past 6 opening week games. Baltimore gets all of the hype when it comes to defense but Pittsburgh is TOUGH. The best defense last year yardage wise. Ranking 1st in pass D, and second in rush D. And in overall yardage D, they lead by a ton, not by 3 yards or so... but by 23.9 yards per game. Overall I think the Superbowl champs will take this one at -5.


Vikings(-4.5)Browns.

As it pains me to say it, because I'm a Bears fan and hate the Vikes.. I like them here -4. How can you not? Adrian Peterson speaks for himself. Brett Favre should do a good enough job of getting the ball to Berrian, etc. And Minnesota has GREAT D. There isn't a whole lot they have to stop in Cleveland either. Kellen Winslow and Donte Stallworth aren't there anymore. Cleveland is 1-8-1 against the spread in past 10 opening week games. As much as I'd like to see the Vikes lose for my personal gain, I don't see it happening.. I'm taking Vikings -4.


Miami Dolpins @ Atlanta Falcons(-4.5)

I like the Falcons here. I hate that they got rid of Keith Brooking in the offseason. He was a force on that defense. But that doesn't mean I don't like this game. I think this is my favorite pick of the week. I think Miami was the most over achieved team in the league last year(by far). Miami went 11-5 last year. But I don't see them coming close to that this year. I've always been a Chad Pennington fan, but I don't see them repeating their performance. 9 of Miami's 11 wins last year came against teams with records of .500 or worse. They went 11-5 by sneaking by bad teams. They had 7 wins by 7 points or less. The AP NFL Rookie of the Year last year, Matt Ryan lead the Falcons to 11-5 season also in 2008. The Falcons finished 6th in overall offense last year.. I think Ryan will only get better in his second year. The Falcons added veteran TE Tony Gonzales to make sure of it. And if not, just hand the ball to Michael "The Burner" Turner. Like Adrian Peterson, Turner speaks for himself.. leading the Falcons to the 2nd best rush offense in 2008. As long as Atlanta's defense doesn't let Chad Pennington do anything crazy, Atlanta should cover here easily.

Ok that's my 3 picks for the week. Don't go bet the house on them. Just throwing them out there!! Ok 4AM.. time to lay down and watch some TV. Later.