Hello all. I went 2-1 on the picks I posted last week. I was about 3 yards from going 3-0. Hines Ward is about to score at the end of regulation, but instead gets stripped and loses the fumble at about the 3 or 4 yard line. Steelers kick a FG on first down in OT to win by 3. So they didn't cover.
My other two picks covered nicely. Falcons were a 4.5 point favorite and won by 12. And the Vikings were a 4.5 favorite and won by 14. BTW I try to bet at the beginning of the week so those lines may have moved before game time on Sunday.
So now.. HERE ARE MY WEEK 2 NFL PICKS!!
First, New England Patriots(-4) @ New York Jets
I won my "pick of the week" last week. And here is my pick of the week this week. I understand that the Pats barely SQUEAKED by the terrible Bills last week. And I'm also aware that the Jets put a beating on the Texans. But I think both of those performances were not true to how good/bad these teams are. What did impress me, was Randy Moss and Wes Welker each caught 12 balls. That's only been done once before in NFL history(Keyshawn and Dunn). I don't think they'll do it again. But Tom Brady is Tom Brady. The last 10 games that the Patriots have played the Jets in New York, The Pats are 10-0 Against the Spread. The Patriots offensive line was iffy last week and it took Brady a while to get back into the groove of things after missing almost all of 2008. But he still ended up with 378 yards passing? The Jets held Schaub in check, but can the 2008's 4th worse pass defense hold Brady in check? I'm betting not.
I'm taking the Pat's -4.
Game 2. The Indianapolis Colts(-4) @ Dolphins
On a side note, I was looking at this game Monday night.. And I really liked it at Colts(-3). I keep the internet explorer up, go take a 10-minute shit.. I get back.. and the line is at -4. Unbelievable lol. What a difference a point can make?!
Anyway, The Colts are another team that sneaked by an opponent in week 1, beating Jacksonville by only 1. This next game has more to do about how I feel about Miami. As I said in my last post when I bet against Miami, I feel like Miami over achieved last year going 11-5. This year they will struggle. And Peyton Manning is a pretty strong guy to try to make a statement against. Anthony Gonzales is banged up, and I don't care for that. But I think Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and the boys should get it done. Peyton can make anyone good enough. The Colts looked ugly but still got it done, especially on defense. They held Jacksonville to 122 yards passing, and held Maurice Jones-Drew under 100 yards rushing. While Manning managed to throw for over 300 yards. Wayne being the main beneficiary. Like I said, Miami is a 2009 bust in my prediction, and the Colts are still... well... the Colts.
I'm taking the Colts(-4).
Last but not least the Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans(-7)
First, I should apologize to the Titans for what I said about them last week. I watched(in disgust) the Titans/Steelers game from the Beau Rivage Poker Room. The Titans impressed me. Kerry Collins looked pretty stable. And Chris Johnson only ran for 57 yards, but only had 15 carries(3.9ypc). But he impressed me some. He looked good. And I think he and L.White can give the Texans some trouble. Thomas(former Bear) Jones gave they trouble last week rushing for 107 yards on only 20 carries and 2 TD's. The Texans defense was 27th in 2008, and showed nothing in week 1 to prove different. In week 1, the Texans only mustered 183 TOTAL NET YARDS, while letting the Rookie Sanchez and the Jets come up with 462. And the Texans offense face a tough Titans D this week. Tennessee is 12-3 Against the spread in their last 15 games within the AFC South. Add up the Titans average offense and great defense v.s. the Texans just overall struggle.... and I've got the Titans covering.
Well there's my picks. Let's see what we can do!
Last week: 2-1
Overall: 2-1
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Saturday, September 12, 2009
ScReWeD uP pOstS!
Ok. Sorry to anyone who reads my blog. Apparently you can't send a long post via text message to your blog. I tried to text one long entry to blogger.com. I realize now that it posted it in 14 different small messages, and left out some content all together. So here, I will piece together everything and also talk about my 2/5NLHE session after my tourney.
I came to Biloxi with Joe & Davey to play Event #10.. $340 NLHE. Bad Idea. I went bust in the 5th level. Seems like it may have been impossible to win today for me. Anytime I caught anything that resembled a hand(or bet without a hand), I got played back at big time.
In one of the first 5 hands of the tournament, 3 people limp to my BB. I look at AcQc. I raise to 250.. Everyone calls.. Flop comes down A-J-9, two spades. I bet out 400.. Mitch from Shortys(who is pretty straight-forward in my opinion) raises. Another player behind calls. Uggh I see what kind of day this is gonna be.. I would usually take a different route, but I can't think of a hand that Mitch can have that doesn't have me beat.. Except for possibly a straight & flush draw hand.. I mucked.. the turn was a 9 and the river was a spade.. No showdown but don't think I could win.
My table was nuts! 25-50 blinds and everyone is raising to like 600 preflop.. It was stupid.. When everyone else in the tourney was playing 50-100, we were basically playing 1000-2000. Which wouldn't be a problem if I caught a few monsters. But Not likely.
I lost a nice amount on one hand when I raised PF with KdQd and got a couple of callers.. I got one caller on the turn on a K-J-10-3 board. River 10.. And he value bets. I pay him off.. He shows Q-10.. F*+^ing 2-outed.
Then I lay down QQ on a 9-high flop. A tight player raises from EP/MP(this is one of the only guys with his head screwed on straight). I have QQ. I elect to just call.. The Maniac in the SB calls also. The flop comes down 9-high and harmless.. The maniac decides to lead out a nice overbet.. His patent move.. I'm praying the PFR folds and I'll pop it. No.. PRF raises to 6k.. Mind you we are at like 100-200. The PFR raised to 6k.. leaving himself not much left. I only have a little over 7k. Shit. Only hands I can beat are 10-10 & J-J. I "tank" for a while.. Then finally decide to wait for a better spot and muck. Really think the PFR had KK or AA.. Who knows.. In my mind he can only have 5 hands. AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, or 99(and the odd chance he has QQ also). I think he limps with any other pair. And doesn't play it that strong post flop. I can beat 2 of those 5 hands.. Gross, but I muck
At the 25/50 or 50/100 level, I saw a 19k pot. Set of queens v.s. a pair of kings, 9 kicker. REALLY?! Basically, a standard guy raises preflop, guy behind him calls.. Flop KQ2.. they end up getting it all in?? No real draw for K9.. just top pair.. Wow.. It wasn't an "I'll try to get you off your hand" play by the pair if kings.. It was a "I have top pair, and I'm not folding" play.
Ok don't want to waste too much of my phone battery writing this, as I am writing this on my iPhone while waiting on a cash game seat... But I want to quickly share this one hand I wasn't envolved in on our mentally challenged table.. Blinds are 25-50..
Guy raises to 600(that's correct, 600).
Gets one caller out of the BB. The Maniac...
Flop comes down 8-6-3.
Maniac checks,
PFR bets 2k!
Maniac calls..
Turn is a 7..
Maniac checks
PFR bets 4k!
Maniac calls..
River is a 9.
Maniac shoves in.
PFR calls..
Maniac shows 56o for a backdoor straight.
PFR shows JJ for a pair of jacks.
These morons are fearless.. Firing a ton of chip.. at 25-50?!? While every other table was playing skillful deepstack poker.. We were playing kamikaze BS. Now I'm pulling for Davey and Joe.. Till next time.. GL
Ok. Now for a recap of my 2/5NLHE session at the Beau after I busted from the tourney. A pretty good session overall. I won $630 playing cash. Winning $290 on the day. For a while, I didn't get too involved. But players could tell that I wasn't exactly a nit. I raised to $30 preflop with 56o and ended up flopping a pair and backdooring a straight. I won that pot to get me to about even(I bought in for $800 btw. The table was pretty deep. As it usually is at the Beau. Especially during WPT time).
Not long after that hand, I hit the monster. It folds around to the button(who I pegged as one of the worse players at the table). He raises to $15. I'm in the SB with J-9o. I usually fold here and let him have it. But I'm looking to "mix it up" with this guy. Also, the BB is a bit of a station, and I wouldn't mind if he joined it. In which he did. Flop comes down Q-10-4. I check.. BB decides to bet $50 The button looks like he might raise. I'm hoping not. I'm open-ended and would love to see the turn for $50 against these two. The button then calls. Nice. I call.. turn.. the beautiful K. I would have preferred an 8.. but hey, I'll take it. I check. BB bets $120 or $150. The button mucks.. have to decide how to play this. I have $795 total in my stack. I decide to go with the min-raise. I raise to $300. Leaving myself $495 and he has me covered. He calls quickly. Ok.. COME ON BRICK.. I think there was a backdoor club draw here. But it doesn't get there 6 of spades on the river. Now what to do. I'm not checking.. but what do I bet? Do I go for value and bet $300 or so? Or do I shove my remaining $495? I like the latter. I shove in. He calls. I'm good. SWEET! Ship that $1,785 my way.
After that, I didn't catch too many hands to make money. Just gave a little back. I played the tourney on Sept. 4th for 12.5 hours.. Never caught aces. I played 5 levels of the tourney this day, never caught aces. Now I've been playing cash for a few hours, no pocket aces. FINALLY, I catch them.. flop a set.. and proceed to lose lol. A guy in EP raises preflop to $30 or so. It folds all the way to me in the SB. I have 2 red aces. Only the BB is left to act behind me. I just call. To my surprise, the BB calls. 3 way to the flop of A-K-10. Not bad.. I check... BB checks.. PFR checks.. damn... Turn is garbage.. I bet $60.. and both call.. River is a jack.. Great.. a queen now makes a straight. But that doesn't necessarily mean somebody has one. I decide to make the same bet, $60. The BB min-raises to $120. Great, there's your queen. Then the PFR moves all-in. You shitting me? There's your queenS. I muck.. BB calls. They chop it up with a queen. BB has Q-10o and PFR has QQ. When they called my turn bet, I was up against 2 opponents with 4 outs total. And they got there lol. Oh well.
Later, I caught AA and played it differently. I am not a big fan of the limp reraise with AA/KK from EP. But I also don't think you should play a hand the same way every single time. So I decide to limp with AA from EP.. A player 3 to my left(The guy who had QQ in the previously mentioned hand) grabs a few chips like he is going to raise(nice) and decides to limp. Then only the blinds tag along. Oh well. The flop comes 5-3-3. Long story short. I bet every street and the limper called and tabled 3h4h at the end for trips. The pot wasn't very large. I think I bet $15, $30, $50 on the streets. The board stayed pretty low. And after I saw him almost raise preflop, I put him on 77-JJ. All I can say is THANK GOD he didn't make it $30 to go. Because I think the blinds fold. Then I probably just call, disguising my hand. And he flops trips with those rags and I never see it coming. I would have lost a much bigger pot.
I lost a bit when the entire table folds and the button limps.. SB completes and I check my BB with QJ.. Flop comes down K-10-9. 2 diamonds. The Nuts. Check to me. I bet $15. Button calls.. SB folds. Turn pairs the board 9's. I bet $30. Button calls. The river double-pairs the board 9-9-10-10-K. I now check and the button bets $100. Good Lord. What a hand. The button was probably one of the most active players at the table, and definitely capable of a bluff here. He could have had 2 diamonds and missed. A straight draw and missed. I contemplated a hero call here for a second. But decided against it. It cost me $100 to win $205.. Not exactly odds I like when I have to call with a straight on a double-paired board. On to the next hand.
The only hand left worth mentioning was again QJ. The table became kind of tight. So when I catch QcJc in MP I make a "small" raise to $20. I get 2 callers(the guy from the 3h4h hand and guy from the previously mentioned hand). I am acting in the middle. The Flop comes down A-10-6. 1 club, 2 spades. Check to me and I bet $60. Both call. Great.. Come on.. KING ONE TIME.. BAM!! King. Wow. Check to me. Now I bet $120(half the pot). The player behind me thinks for a while, then finally mucks. The other player does the same. UNREAL. Hit the miracle.. muck muck.. Oh well..
ALL in ALL.. I won $630 in the cash game and had a good time. Till next time.. GL ALL
I came to Biloxi with Joe & Davey to play Event #10.. $340 NLHE. Bad Idea. I went bust in the 5th level. Seems like it may have been impossible to win today for me. Anytime I caught anything that resembled a hand(or bet without a hand), I got played back at big time.
In one of the first 5 hands of the tournament, 3 people limp to my BB. I look at AcQc. I raise to 250.. Everyone calls.. Flop comes down A-J-9, two spades. I bet out 400.. Mitch from Shortys(who is pretty straight-forward in my opinion) raises. Another player behind calls. Uggh I see what kind of day this is gonna be.. I would usually take a different route, but I can't think of a hand that Mitch can have that doesn't have me beat.. Except for possibly a straight & flush draw hand.. I mucked.. the turn was a 9 and the river was a spade.. No showdown but don't think I could win.
My table was nuts! 25-50 blinds and everyone is raising to like 600 preflop.. It was stupid.. When everyone else in the tourney was playing 50-100, we were basically playing 1000-2000. Which wouldn't be a problem if I caught a few monsters. But Not likely.
I lost a nice amount on one hand when I raised PF with KdQd and got a couple of callers.. I got one caller on the turn on a K-J-10-3 board. River 10.. And he value bets. I pay him off.. He shows Q-10.. F*+^ing 2-outed.
Then I lay down QQ on a 9-high flop. A tight player raises from EP/MP(this is one of the only guys with his head screwed on straight). I have QQ. I elect to just call.. The Maniac in the SB calls also. The flop comes down 9-high and harmless.. The maniac decides to lead out a nice overbet.. His patent move.. I'm praying the PFR folds and I'll pop it. No.. PRF raises to 6k.. Mind you we are at like 100-200. The PFR raised to 6k.. leaving himself not much left. I only have a little over 7k. Shit. Only hands I can beat are 10-10 & J-J. I "tank" for a while.. Then finally decide to wait for a better spot and muck. Really think the PFR had KK or AA.. Who knows.. In my mind he can only have 5 hands. AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, or 99(and the odd chance he has QQ also). I think he limps with any other pair. And doesn't play it that strong post flop. I can beat 2 of those 5 hands.. Gross, but I muck
At the 25/50 or 50/100 level, I saw a 19k pot. Set of queens v.s. a pair of kings, 9 kicker. REALLY?! Basically, a standard guy raises preflop, guy behind him calls.. Flop KQ2.. they end up getting it all in?? No real draw for K9.. just top pair.. Wow.. It wasn't an "I'll try to get you off your hand" play by the pair if kings.. It was a "I have top pair, and I'm not folding" play.
Ok don't want to waste too much of my phone battery writing this, as I am writing this on my iPhone while waiting on a cash game seat... But I want to quickly share this one hand I wasn't envolved in on our mentally challenged table.. Blinds are 25-50..
Guy raises to 600(that's correct, 600).
Gets one caller out of the BB. The Maniac...
Flop comes down 8-6-3.
Maniac checks,
PFR bets 2k!
Maniac calls..
Turn is a 7..
Maniac checks
PFR bets 4k!
Maniac calls..
River is a 9.
Maniac shoves in.
PFR calls..
Maniac shows 56o for a backdoor straight.
PFR shows JJ for a pair of jacks.
These morons are fearless.. Firing a ton of chip.. at 25-50?!? While every other table was playing skillful deepstack poker.. We were playing kamikaze BS. Now I'm pulling for Davey and Joe.. Till next time.. GL
Ok. Now for a recap of my 2/5NLHE session at the Beau after I busted from the tourney. A pretty good session overall. I won $630 playing cash. Winning $290 on the day. For a while, I didn't get too involved. But players could tell that I wasn't exactly a nit. I raised to $30 preflop with 56o and ended up flopping a pair and backdooring a straight. I won that pot to get me to about even(I bought in for $800 btw. The table was pretty deep. As it usually is at the Beau. Especially during WPT time).
Not long after that hand, I hit the monster. It folds around to the button(who I pegged as one of the worse players at the table). He raises to $15. I'm in the SB with J-9o. I usually fold here and let him have it. But I'm looking to "mix it up" with this guy. Also, the BB is a bit of a station, and I wouldn't mind if he joined it. In which he did. Flop comes down Q-10-4. I check.. BB decides to bet $50 The button looks like he might raise. I'm hoping not. I'm open-ended and would love to see the turn for $50 against these two. The button then calls. Nice. I call.. turn.. the beautiful K. I would have preferred an 8.. but hey, I'll take it. I check. BB bets $120 or $150. The button mucks.. have to decide how to play this. I have $795 total in my stack. I decide to go with the min-raise. I raise to $300. Leaving myself $495 and he has me covered. He calls quickly. Ok.. COME ON BRICK.. I think there was a backdoor club draw here. But it doesn't get there 6 of spades on the river. Now what to do. I'm not checking.. but what do I bet? Do I go for value and bet $300 or so? Or do I shove my remaining $495? I like the latter. I shove in. He calls. I'm good. SWEET! Ship that $1,785 my way.
After that, I didn't catch too many hands to make money. Just gave a little back. I played the tourney on Sept. 4th for 12.5 hours.. Never caught aces. I played 5 levels of the tourney this day, never caught aces. Now I've been playing cash for a few hours, no pocket aces. FINALLY, I catch them.. flop a set.. and proceed to lose lol. A guy in EP raises preflop to $30 or so. It folds all the way to me in the SB. I have 2 red aces. Only the BB is left to act behind me. I just call. To my surprise, the BB calls. 3 way to the flop of A-K-10. Not bad.. I check... BB checks.. PFR checks.. damn... Turn is garbage.. I bet $60.. and both call.. River is a jack.. Great.. a queen now makes a straight. But that doesn't necessarily mean somebody has one. I decide to make the same bet, $60. The BB min-raises to $120. Great, there's your queen. Then the PFR moves all-in. You shitting me? There's your queenS. I muck.. BB calls. They chop it up with a queen. BB has Q-10o and PFR has QQ. When they called my turn bet, I was up against 2 opponents with 4 outs total. And they got there lol. Oh well.
Later, I caught AA and played it differently. I am not a big fan of the limp reraise with AA/KK from EP. But I also don't think you should play a hand the same way every single time. So I decide to limp with AA from EP.. A player 3 to my left(The guy who had QQ in the previously mentioned hand) grabs a few chips like he is going to raise(nice) and decides to limp. Then only the blinds tag along. Oh well. The flop comes 5-3-3. Long story short. I bet every street and the limper called and tabled 3h4h at the end for trips. The pot wasn't very large. I think I bet $15, $30, $50 on the streets. The board stayed pretty low. And after I saw him almost raise preflop, I put him on 77-JJ. All I can say is THANK GOD he didn't make it $30 to go. Because I think the blinds fold. Then I probably just call, disguising my hand. And he flops trips with those rags and I never see it coming. I would have lost a much bigger pot.
I lost a bit when the entire table folds and the button limps.. SB completes and I check my BB with QJ.. Flop comes down K-10-9. 2 diamonds. The Nuts. Check to me. I bet $15. Button calls.. SB folds. Turn pairs the board 9's. I bet $30. Button calls. The river double-pairs the board 9-9-10-10-K. I now check and the button bets $100. Good Lord. What a hand. The button was probably one of the most active players at the table, and definitely capable of a bluff here. He could have had 2 diamonds and missed. A straight draw and missed. I contemplated a hero call here for a second. But decided against it. It cost me $100 to win $205.. Not exactly odds I like when I have to call with a straight on a double-paired board. On to the next hand.
The only hand left worth mentioning was again QJ. The table became kind of tight. So when I catch QcJc in MP I make a "small" raise to $20. I get 2 callers(the guy from the 3h4h hand and guy from the previously mentioned hand). I am acting in the middle. The Flop comes down A-10-6. 1 club, 2 spades. Check to me and I bet $60. Both call. Great.. Come on.. KING ONE TIME.. BAM!! King. Wow. Check to me. Now I bet $120(half the pot). The player behind me thinks for a while, then finally mucks. The other player does the same. UNREAL. Hit the miracle.. muck muck.. Oh well..
ALL in ALL.. I won $630 in the cash game and had a good time. Till next time.. GL ALL
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Tourney & NFL Week 1 picks!
Hello all. Well as you may have seen on the GCP main site, I played Event #1 at the Beau Friday and managed to sneak into the money. This post with talk a little about that, my overall weekend, and about the NFL Week 1 games I'm betting. Here we go:
I took my girlfriend and kids to the Saints game Thursday night. Figures they go 3-1 during preseason, and we watch the only game they lose. Not only that but the game was overall just dreadful(as far as plays go). No big plays to speak of. I did enjoy bringing the kids to their first Saints game. They enjoyed it. We took off in the 4th quarter to the Beau.
We arrived at about midnight. I went talk and sweat Joe Beuche and Tex for a while. But didn't want to get into a game, knowing I had to be up for the 12pm tournament the next day. I got a little sleep, and woke up for 8AM to sign up for the tournament. This turned out to be a good idea because the line later was ridiculous. Then I caught breakfast with Davey(Southpaw Rounder). Afterwards, I realized I needed a room for today. Lisa and the kids had to be out of the room for 11AM. So here is where my day started getting shitty. I'm on the phone half the morning trying to find a good room at a decent rate. I call and leave a message for Donna at the Beau, trying to get a poker room rate for Friday, because the $319 normal rate is a little absurd. I leave her a message. No contact from her so I call around. Best Western across the street from the Beau, $159... IP.. $199... and a few others with about the same price. Then I call the Isle of Capri. I can get a Jacuzzi Suite there for $139. Sweet. I book a room there. Then it happens. The last word out of the receptionist's mouth was, "Just so you know, this is a Non-Refundable reservation." O.K. No Problem, I don't plan on canceling anyway. I swear to you, not 3 minutes later I get a phone call. It's Gene D. I tell him I just booked a room at the Isle. And to that he says, "Oh man. Davey told me about your situation. And I'm leaving now and I have the room booked for tonight at the Poker room rate. I was going to let you stay there for the $99 or so rate." S.O.B.!!
It ended up not being too bad.. Because the kids got to see a new hotel. There was a little TV in the bathroom that PUMPED them up. There was also a TV in an awkward spot. 3 TVs. Not too bad. A nice size jacuzzi(That Lisa and I took full advantage of). The room is not as elegant as the rooms at the Beau. But they probably enjoyed it more. I personally wished we stayed at the Beau but it worked out OK.
Now onto the tourney.. this gets worse. I get to the Beau a little late after the hotel switch fiasco. When getting out of the truck, I drop my iPhone on the ground. No Problem, I have a hell of a case(Learned my lesson after destroying my original iPhone by dropping it in the Venetian). Problem is, the tiny hole I had near the crotch of my pants.... spits into a nice size hole.. UGGHH! At least I have a jacket that pretty much covers it. But every time I moved around throughout the day, that hole spit bigger and bigger. It got to where my jacket wouldn't fully cover it. That was just a huge pain in the ass all day, putting my hands in my jacket pocket to cover my hole with the bottom of the jacket.
I finally get in and have a seat at my table, Seat 5. I really like sitting in the 1,2,9 or 10. I'm squished in the middle this time. O.K. time to put on my headphones to drown out some idiot talking about why he didn't bet the river with a set because a club hit. I put them on for about 15 seconds before they die. I check the headphones, not charged and dead!! Unbelievable. My stupidity. So now I have to cover a hole in my jeans, and lug around a Bose headphone case with non-working headphones all f*%^ing day. Ok Sorry.... onto poker.
My tourney started out very slow. I raised a fair bit preflop early and took down some blinds to stay around. I raised with 10-8 from the button to take down the blinds. Then the very next hand, from the cutoff.. I have KK. Sweet. They can't let me take two blinds in a row huh? Yes they can. For the record, I played the tournament for 12.5 hours.. I never caught AA. I caught KK once, and QQ twice. Winning all three preflop.. Yuck. I made one set, no nut straights or flushes. And the set I made was on the river when my pair was ahead on the flop when I called a short-stack all-in.
I was pretty dead on with my reads pretty much all day. Except for a couple of hands I'll get to later. One hand that I won a very nice pot with at the time was 3d5d. Blinds are 100/200/25. I raise from MP to 600. I get called in 4 spots! Flop comes down Q-5-4. Two spades. Check, Check ,check to me. I should have bet here, but I didn't. I check and player behind me checks. The turn is a 2. Which actually gives an open-ended straight draw to go with my pair of 5's. Again, check check check to me. This time I bet.. 2k. I get 3 calls. Jesus. When I bet the turn I thought there was a good chance I had the best hand, now I'm not so sure. The river is an offsuit 8. Spades never get there. Check, Check to me. I check. And the tight player left to act behind me, makes a face like, "WTF?!" I'm thinking he may bet. In which case I'm probably calling. He checks. And my 5 holds. Nice. With the blinds at 100/200/25, I win a 11k+ pot with a pair of 5's, 3-kicker.
I don't like to sound like I'm gloating, but I do feel like I played very well the entire tournament. Probably my B+ game(like I have any idea). Here's a hand that I didn't necessarily have a bad read. I just got tired of his guy and was ready to make a play at him.. And got SUPER lucky. This one guy at our table 2 spots to my right, was raising every hand he was in the cutoff or button. He would raise his button(my BB) and we would fold, he'd pick-up the pot. Standard shit. Well I was getting tired of it. The table folds around to him and he raises his button. The SB folds. And I finally decide to defend with 5-6off. The flop comes down K-9-7. I check and he bets out strong. He continuation bet all f*&^ing day. I thought, Ok I'm calling this bet, then betting or check shoving the turn(probably just betting). So I call. Then the miracle 8 hits the turn. Nice. No need for the bluff now. I check. He shoves(another overbet) and I call. He shows K-9 for top two. He doesn't fill up and I bust him. And I come off looking like a complete idiot, calling a big bet on the flop with a gutterball. Which I'm ok with, just ship me the chips. But if I don't hit the 8, I'm betting.. then probably having to call an all-in(because of the amount of the stacks). And he actually had a real hand this time. Shows you the difference a card can make.
I know what you're thinking, "It's easy to play well when you can hit miracles." True. But that's the only hand I got really lucky on. I felt good. I was reraising when I was supposed to. C-betting in success. I called a river bet with Top pair that was a tough call. I was doing the right things. I never made many hands. Couldn't connect with Broadway cards much. I was above average in chips for most of the tournament. I didn't get moved from my original table for hours and hours. People came and went.
Finally I got moved to another table with about 100-200 people left. I caught a couple of decent hands early. Then it happened. I went COMPLETELY card dead at absolute worse time. But I couldn't catch a cold. With 100 players left, I bet our table had 40% of the chips. I mean it was ridiculous. Chips were flying, and I was mainly watching. With about 85k in chips.. A player raised from MP/LP to 10k. I made it 30k with A5off. I took down the blinds, antes, and his raise. If I don't steal that pot, I don't make the money. I did manage to catch 1010 and lost a decent pot to JJ. It was sick. Believe me, I'm not the guy who waits and sits out and tries to make the money. But I didn't feel like shoving with 9-4, 10-3, 8-3, 8-2, J-4, etc. So basically, I waited for an absolute monster, or I was waiting for the money. I didn't have enough chips to splash with. I was getting low.
Then the money bubble bursts. 589 players entered. 54 spots paid. You're listening to Mr. 54th place lol. The bubble burst. Next hand I'm UTG and muck my garbage. Next hand I'm in the BB. Blinds are 2k/4k/500. I have 34k left. The entire table folds to the button, who raises to 15k. The SB thinks, then just calls. I look down at AK. I'm happy and pissed. I'm happy because I finally have a hand, and pissed because where was this shit 2 hours ago? Well I shove or course. 19k on top.. They both call. They check it down until the button bets the river. Shit I must be done. Sure enough, he has 10h8h and rivered a straight. Unbelievable. The SB shows AJ. I could have won this hand a few different ways. First, the SB.. an aggressive player could have(and I think usually would) 3bet preflop. If he pops the button's raise a healthy amount, I still shove.. The button folds, and I beat AJ heads up. He also had the opportunity to do that after I shoved and the button called. I could have won that way too. And last but certainly not least, if the button doesn't river a straight. My AK was ahead going to the river. He rivers a gutterball. I actually only need to dodge 13 outs on the river.. and I'm right about average in chips. Can't do it... I'm out.
12.5 hours played, barely make enough money for the extra hotel night... An absolute grind! Ah well.. better luck next time.
ONTO NFL FOOTBALL!!
Week 1 starts this week. I'm pumped. I'm a Chicago Bears fan. They play Green Bay on Sunday Night Football. I'm excited. Anybody who watches football know that Bears/Packers is like the biggest rivalry in football. Go Bears!
Well, I enjoy betting pro football. I am no sports handicapper(not yet anyway lol). But I thought I'd give you my picks and let you see how well/bad I do. I'll also give a little reasoning behind my picks. Here we go:
Tennesse Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers(-5)
I'm taking the Steelers here(I know you like it Ray). Tennesse went 13-3 last year. But I don't think they'll even make the playoffs this year. The Titans had a great defense last year. But they lost two keys from that D. The Monster that is Albert Haynesworth(Washington Redskins), and their defensive coordinator Jeff Schwartz, who is now coaching the Lions. I simply think the Titans are not the team they were last year. Kerry Collins is their QB for now. He does scare me a bit because he is inconsistent in my eyes and can possibly have a great game. But I don't think it will happen. He doesn't have a whole lot to through to. Pittsburgh is 5-1 against the spread in their past 6 opening week games. Baltimore gets all of the hype when it comes to defense but Pittsburgh is TOUGH. The best defense last year yardage wise. Ranking 1st in pass D, and second in rush D. And in overall yardage D, they lead by a ton, not by 3 yards or so... but by 23.9 yards per game. Overall I think the Superbowl champs will take this one at -5.
Vikings(-4.5)Browns.
As it pains me to say it, because I'm a Bears fan and hate the Vikes.. I like them here -4. How can you not? Adrian Peterson speaks for himself. Brett Favre should do a good enough job of getting the ball to Berrian, etc. And Minnesota has GREAT D. There isn't a whole lot they have to stop in Cleveland either. Kellen Winslow and Donte Stallworth aren't there anymore. Cleveland is 1-8-1 against the spread in past 10 opening week games. As much as I'd like to see the Vikes lose for my personal gain, I don't see it happening.. I'm taking Vikings -4.
Miami Dolpins @ Atlanta Falcons(-4.5)
I like the Falcons here. I hate that they got rid of Keith Brooking in the offseason. He was a force on that defense. But that doesn't mean I don't like this game. I think this is my favorite pick of the week. I think Miami was the most over achieved team in the league last year(by far). Miami went 11-5 last year. But I don't see them coming close to that this year. I've always been a Chad Pennington fan, but I don't see them repeating their performance. 9 of Miami's 11 wins last year came against teams with records of .500 or worse. They went 11-5 by sneaking by bad teams. They had 7 wins by 7 points or less. The AP NFL Rookie of the Year last year, Matt Ryan lead the Falcons to 11-5 season also in 2008. The Falcons finished 6th in overall offense last year.. I think Ryan will only get better in his second year. The Falcons added veteran TE Tony Gonzales to make sure of it. And if not, just hand the ball to Michael "The Burner" Turner. Like Adrian Peterson, Turner speaks for himself.. leading the Falcons to the 2nd best rush offense in 2008. As long as Atlanta's defense doesn't let Chad Pennington do anything crazy, Atlanta should cover here easily.
Ok that's my 3 picks for the week. Don't go bet the house on them. Just throwing them out there!! Ok 4AM.. time to lay down and watch some TV. Later.
I took my girlfriend and kids to the Saints game Thursday night. Figures they go 3-1 during preseason, and we watch the only game they lose. Not only that but the game was overall just dreadful(as far as plays go). No big plays to speak of. I did enjoy bringing the kids to their first Saints game. They enjoyed it. We took off in the 4th quarter to the Beau.
We arrived at about midnight. I went talk and sweat Joe Beuche and Tex for a while. But didn't want to get into a game, knowing I had to be up for the 12pm tournament the next day. I got a little sleep, and woke up for 8AM to sign up for the tournament. This turned out to be a good idea because the line later was ridiculous. Then I caught breakfast with Davey(Southpaw Rounder). Afterwards, I realized I needed a room for today. Lisa and the kids had to be out of the room for 11AM. So here is where my day started getting shitty. I'm on the phone half the morning trying to find a good room at a decent rate. I call and leave a message for Donna at the Beau, trying to get a poker room rate for Friday, because the $319 normal rate is a little absurd. I leave her a message. No contact from her so I call around. Best Western across the street from the Beau, $159... IP.. $199... and a few others with about the same price. Then I call the Isle of Capri. I can get a Jacuzzi Suite there for $139. Sweet. I book a room there. Then it happens. The last word out of the receptionist's mouth was, "Just so you know, this is a Non-Refundable reservation." O.K. No Problem, I don't plan on canceling anyway. I swear to you, not 3 minutes later I get a phone call. It's Gene D. I tell him I just booked a room at the Isle. And to that he says, "Oh man. Davey told me about your situation. And I'm leaving now and I have the room booked for tonight at the Poker room rate. I was going to let you stay there for the $99 or so rate." S.O.B.!!
It ended up not being too bad.. Because the kids got to see a new hotel. There was a little TV in the bathroom that PUMPED them up. There was also a TV in an awkward spot. 3 TVs. Not too bad. A nice size jacuzzi(That Lisa and I took full advantage of). The room is not as elegant as the rooms at the Beau. But they probably enjoyed it more. I personally wished we stayed at the Beau but it worked out OK.
Now onto the tourney.. this gets worse. I get to the Beau a little late after the hotel switch fiasco. When getting out of the truck, I drop my iPhone on the ground. No Problem, I have a hell of a case(Learned my lesson after destroying my original iPhone by dropping it in the Venetian). Problem is, the tiny hole I had near the crotch of my pants.... spits into a nice size hole.. UGGHH! At least I have a jacket that pretty much covers it. But every time I moved around throughout the day, that hole spit bigger and bigger. It got to where my jacket wouldn't fully cover it. That was just a huge pain in the ass all day, putting my hands in my jacket pocket to cover my hole with the bottom of the jacket.
I finally get in and have a seat at my table, Seat 5. I really like sitting in the 1,2,9 or 10. I'm squished in the middle this time. O.K. time to put on my headphones to drown out some idiot talking about why he didn't bet the river with a set because a club hit. I put them on for about 15 seconds before they die. I check the headphones, not charged and dead!! Unbelievable. My stupidity. So now I have to cover a hole in my jeans, and lug around a Bose headphone case with non-working headphones all f*%^ing day. Ok Sorry.... onto poker.
My tourney started out very slow. I raised a fair bit preflop early and took down some blinds to stay around. I raised with 10-8 from the button to take down the blinds. Then the very next hand, from the cutoff.. I have KK. Sweet. They can't let me take two blinds in a row huh? Yes they can. For the record, I played the tournament for 12.5 hours.. I never caught AA. I caught KK once, and QQ twice. Winning all three preflop.. Yuck. I made one set, no nut straights or flushes. And the set I made was on the river when my pair was ahead on the flop when I called a short-stack all-in.
I was pretty dead on with my reads pretty much all day. Except for a couple of hands I'll get to later. One hand that I won a very nice pot with at the time was 3d5d. Blinds are 100/200/25. I raise from MP to 600. I get called in 4 spots! Flop comes down Q-5-4. Two spades. Check, Check ,check to me. I should have bet here, but I didn't. I check and player behind me checks. The turn is a 2. Which actually gives an open-ended straight draw to go with my pair of 5's. Again, check check check to me. This time I bet.. 2k. I get 3 calls. Jesus. When I bet the turn I thought there was a good chance I had the best hand, now I'm not so sure. The river is an offsuit 8. Spades never get there. Check, Check to me. I check. And the tight player left to act behind me, makes a face like, "WTF?!" I'm thinking he may bet. In which case I'm probably calling. He checks. And my 5 holds. Nice. With the blinds at 100/200/25, I win a 11k+ pot with a pair of 5's, 3-kicker.
I don't like to sound like I'm gloating, but I do feel like I played very well the entire tournament. Probably my B+ game(like I have any idea). Here's a hand that I didn't necessarily have a bad read. I just got tired of his guy and was ready to make a play at him.. And got SUPER lucky. This one guy at our table 2 spots to my right, was raising every hand he was in the cutoff or button. He would raise his button(my BB) and we would fold, he'd pick-up the pot. Standard shit. Well I was getting tired of it. The table folds around to him and he raises his button. The SB folds. And I finally decide to defend with 5-6off. The flop comes down K-9-7. I check and he bets out strong. He continuation bet all f*&^ing day. I thought, Ok I'm calling this bet, then betting or check shoving the turn(probably just betting). So I call. Then the miracle 8 hits the turn. Nice. No need for the bluff now. I check. He shoves(another overbet) and I call. He shows K-9 for top two. He doesn't fill up and I bust him. And I come off looking like a complete idiot, calling a big bet on the flop with a gutterball. Which I'm ok with, just ship me the chips. But if I don't hit the 8, I'm betting.. then probably having to call an all-in(because of the amount of the stacks). And he actually had a real hand this time. Shows you the difference a card can make.
I know what you're thinking, "It's easy to play well when you can hit miracles." True. But that's the only hand I got really lucky on. I felt good. I was reraising when I was supposed to. C-betting in success. I called a river bet with Top pair that was a tough call. I was doing the right things. I never made many hands. Couldn't connect with Broadway cards much. I was above average in chips for most of the tournament. I didn't get moved from my original table for hours and hours. People came and went.
Finally I got moved to another table with about 100-200 people left. I caught a couple of decent hands early. Then it happened. I went COMPLETELY card dead at absolute worse time. But I couldn't catch a cold. With 100 players left, I bet our table had 40% of the chips. I mean it was ridiculous. Chips were flying, and I was mainly watching. With about 85k in chips.. A player raised from MP/LP to 10k. I made it 30k with A5off. I took down the blinds, antes, and his raise. If I don't steal that pot, I don't make the money. I did manage to catch 1010 and lost a decent pot to JJ. It was sick. Believe me, I'm not the guy who waits and sits out and tries to make the money. But I didn't feel like shoving with 9-4, 10-3, 8-3, 8-2, J-4, etc. So basically, I waited for an absolute monster, or I was waiting for the money. I didn't have enough chips to splash with. I was getting low.
Then the money bubble bursts. 589 players entered. 54 spots paid. You're listening to Mr. 54th place lol. The bubble burst. Next hand I'm UTG and muck my garbage. Next hand I'm in the BB. Blinds are 2k/4k/500. I have 34k left. The entire table folds to the button, who raises to 15k. The SB thinks, then just calls. I look down at AK. I'm happy and pissed. I'm happy because I finally have a hand, and pissed because where was this shit 2 hours ago? Well I shove or course. 19k on top.. They both call. They check it down until the button bets the river. Shit I must be done. Sure enough, he has 10h8h and rivered a straight. Unbelievable. The SB shows AJ. I could have won this hand a few different ways. First, the SB.. an aggressive player could have(and I think usually would) 3bet preflop. If he pops the button's raise a healthy amount, I still shove.. The button folds, and I beat AJ heads up. He also had the opportunity to do that after I shoved and the button called. I could have won that way too. And last but certainly not least, if the button doesn't river a straight. My AK was ahead going to the river. He rivers a gutterball. I actually only need to dodge 13 outs on the river.. and I'm right about average in chips. Can't do it... I'm out.
12.5 hours played, barely make enough money for the extra hotel night... An absolute grind! Ah well.. better luck next time.
ONTO NFL FOOTBALL!!
Week 1 starts this week. I'm pumped. I'm a Chicago Bears fan. They play Green Bay on Sunday Night Football. I'm excited. Anybody who watches football know that Bears/Packers is like the biggest rivalry in football. Go Bears!
Well, I enjoy betting pro football. I am no sports handicapper(not yet anyway lol). But I thought I'd give you my picks and let you see how well/bad I do. I'll also give a little reasoning behind my picks. Here we go:
Tennesse Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers(-5)
I'm taking the Steelers here(I know you like it Ray). Tennesse went 13-3 last year. But I don't think they'll even make the playoffs this year. The Titans had a great defense last year. But they lost two keys from that D. The Monster that is Albert Haynesworth(Washington Redskins), and their defensive coordinator Jeff Schwartz, who is now coaching the Lions. I simply think the Titans are not the team they were last year. Kerry Collins is their QB for now. He does scare me a bit because he is inconsistent in my eyes and can possibly have a great game. But I don't think it will happen. He doesn't have a whole lot to through to. Pittsburgh is 5-1 against the spread in their past 6 opening week games. Baltimore gets all of the hype when it comes to defense but Pittsburgh is TOUGH. The best defense last year yardage wise. Ranking 1st in pass D, and second in rush D. And in overall yardage D, they lead by a ton, not by 3 yards or so... but by 23.9 yards per game. Overall I think the Superbowl champs will take this one at -5.
Vikings(-4.5)Browns.
As it pains me to say it, because I'm a Bears fan and hate the Vikes.. I like them here -4. How can you not? Adrian Peterson speaks for himself. Brett Favre should do a good enough job of getting the ball to Berrian, etc. And Minnesota has GREAT D. There isn't a whole lot they have to stop in Cleveland either. Kellen Winslow and Donte Stallworth aren't there anymore. Cleveland is 1-8-1 against the spread in past 10 opening week games. As much as I'd like to see the Vikes lose for my personal gain, I don't see it happening.. I'm taking Vikings -4.
Miami Dolpins @ Atlanta Falcons(-4.5)
I like the Falcons here. I hate that they got rid of Keith Brooking in the offseason. He was a force on that defense. But that doesn't mean I don't like this game. I think this is my favorite pick of the week. I think Miami was the most over achieved team in the league last year(by far). Miami went 11-5 last year. But I don't see them coming close to that this year. I've always been a Chad Pennington fan, but I don't see them repeating their performance. 9 of Miami's 11 wins last year came against teams with records of .500 or worse. They went 11-5 by sneaking by bad teams. They had 7 wins by 7 points or less. The AP NFL Rookie of the Year last year, Matt Ryan lead the Falcons to 11-5 season also in 2008. The Falcons finished 6th in overall offense last year.. I think Ryan will only get better in his second year. The Falcons added veteran TE Tony Gonzales to make sure of it. And if not, just hand the ball to Michael "The Burner" Turner. Like Adrian Peterson, Turner speaks for himself.. leading the Falcons to the 2nd best rush offense in 2008. As long as Atlanta's defense doesn't let Chad Pennington do anything crazy, Atlanta should cover here easily.
Ok that's my 3 picks for the week. Don't go bet the house on them. Just throwing them out there!! Ok 4AM.. time to lay down and watch some TV. Later.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
